The Rio Grande Valley’s economy — built on cross-border trade, manufacturing, and a steady flow of immigrant labor — could be among the first to feel the effects of a changing U.S. job market.

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows the number of immigrants entering or remaining in the U.S. workforce has fallen sharply, reducing the need for massive monthly job gains to keep unemployment steady. 

The study finds that the U.S. economy now needs to add only about 30,000 jobs a month to prevent unemployment from rising, down from roughly 250,000 in 2023.

“The most significant driver of recent volatility in the labor force has been immigration,” Anton Cheremukhin, a principal economist at the Dallas Fed and author of the report, said.

Cheremukhin notes that official population and labor data often take months to reflect real-world changes. During periods of rapid immigration shifts, those delays can make the economy appear stronger or weaker than it actually is, he said.

That context underscores how sudden changes in immigration — especially along the U.S.–Mexico border — can alter the entire country’s labor dynamics, and why economists are rethinking what “normal” job growth means.

“The current break-even employment level is unusually low due to a reversal of immigration flows and declines in labor force participation,” Cheremukhin said in the report.

Why it matters in the Rio Grande Valley

Local industries such as logistics, construction, and advanced manufacturing depend heavily on immigrant and cross-border labor. A slowdown in that flow could tighten the supply of available workers while keeping unemployment low.

Economists say it’s a reminder that smaller national job numbers no longer mean the economy is weakening — they may simply reflect fewer new workers entering the labor force.

“Employment growth that might have been considered soft a year ago could now represent a healthy, balanced job market,” Cheremukhin said.

In short, if fewer people are joining the workforce — including immigrants who have historically filled key Valley jobs — employers don’t have to hire as many people each month to maintain stability.

That could help explain why the national unemployment rate has stayed near 4% even as hiring has cooled.

In the Rio Grande Valley, unemployment tends to run higher. 

In August, the Texas Workforce Commission reported the following unemployment rates for the Valley: Hidalgo County, 7.1%; Cameron County, 7.5%; Starr County, 10.0%; and Willacy County, 8.3%.

Similar forces — slower labor-force growth and steady demand — can help keep local rates from climbing further.

A slowdown that starts at the border

For decades, immigration helped the U.S. absorb rapid job creation and population growth, including in South Texas. The Dallas Fed now says those flows have slowed and, in some cases, reversed — meaning more people are leaving or staying out of the labor force than entering it.

That reversal has reshaped the math behind how economists read the labor market. With fewer people available to work, smaller job gains can keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Dallas Fed notes that immigration explains much of this year’s drop in labor-force growth but adds that lower participation rates and an aging population also play a role.

What local leaders should watch

Economic developers and city officials across the Valley may need to rethink how they define success. 

For years, progress was measured by the number of new jobs created. But in today’s labor market, fewer jobs might not signal stagnation — they could reflect equilibrium.

Cheremukhin said the unemployment rate remains a more stable gauge of economic health when immigration and participation rates are in flux.

That means Valley leaders should pay closer attention to who’s working, how wages are moving, and whether residents can stay and advance — not just how many new jobs appear each month.

For sectors that rely on cross-border labor, that may also mean investing in training and automation to offset a tighter labor supply.

The broader takeaway

The Dallas Fed’s analysis reframes what “normal” looks like for hiring.

For the Rio Grande Valley, it highlights a new reality: slower immigration can simultaneously ease pressure on the national job market while making it harder for local employers to fill openings.

Even modest job growth could still mean the region’s economy is strong — as long as Valley workers can find opportunities and wages keep up.