A new 25% U.S. tariff on medium- and heavy-duty trucks, set to take effect Nov. 1 under Section 232 of the national security law, is sending ripples through the North American supply chain — and could hit Mexico, Texas, and the border’s freight corridor hardest.

The measure, which covers vehicles from delivery trucks to tractor-trailers and buses, adds to a growing list of tariffs already applied to steel, aluminum, and auto parts. Analysts warn the move could drive up logistics costs and reshape sourcing strategies for cross-border manufacturers.

According to Adrián González, director of Global Alliance Solutions, Mexico supplies about 70% of the United States’ imported heavy-duty trucks, valued at roughly $15 billion in exports each year.

Although the USMCA grants duty-free access when regional-content rules are met, the use of Section 232 could override those preferences, creating operational and financial uncertainty for importers and manufacturers on both sides of the border.

Mexico-based manufacturers among most exposed

The new tariff could most directly affect producers such as International/Navistar and Daimler, which assemble in Mexico, while U.S.-based manufacturers including Paccar and Volvo would likely face less disruption.

“What worries me most is the tariff impact,” González said. “Some companies can absorb the cost; others cannot. Some are already priced above the market, which pushes them out of competition. Measures like this reconfigure supply chains — they force you to rethink prices, routes, and strategies.”

Industry observers anticipate ripple effects across the border region’s trucking and logistics sectors — from higher fleet costs in transportation, construction, and utilities to contract renegotiations and requests for relief before U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

“One of the biggest challenges is how quickly changes take effect,” González added. “Sometimes notices arrive on a Friday to be applied on Monday. Importers can’t react that fast. That’s why we’ve asked Congress for more time to implement modifications — trade policy today is very dynamic and creates a lot of uncertainty.”

Despite those challenges, González said the sector sees room to adapt. He noted that the complexity of new rules is pushing firms to professionalize and strengthen the technical guidance offered to clients, positioning customs brokers as a key link to keep trade flowing and ensure companies take advantage of available exemptions or mitigations.

“It’s not all bad news,” González said. “This complexity also pushes us to professionalize, to strengthen the technical guidance we provide clients. Brokers play a fundamental role in keeping trade flowing, ensuring the right amount is paid, and taking advantage of available exemptions or mitigations.”

González said that while the measure may fuel short-term volatility, it could also open the door to a higher-value reconfiguration in Mexico — provided the country maintains its strategic role within the USMCA bloc.

“Mexico still holds a privileged position in trade with the United States,” he said. “Hopefully it preserves it, because that will naturally bring higher-value opportunities and more manufacturing at home.”

Texas–Mexico trade corridor faces another test

González warned that the recurring use of measures such as Section 232 could undermine regional integration and reduce the competitiveness of the North American bloc. In this context, diplomatic cooperation and regulatory clarity will be critical to sustaining the commercial dynamism that characterizes the Texas–Mexico border region.

“Foreign trade has always been resilient,” González concluded. “Changes will keep coming, but the key is to adapt, work together, and keep moving forward. That has always been the constant in trade — and it will continue to be.”