Brownsville and McAllen ranked high on a nationwide ‘overpriced’ housing market list — here’s what the data says

There’s no doubt that there’s been a significant increase in single-family home sale prices over the past decade across the Rio Grande Valley, often outpacing county appraisal district estimates and, in some cases, higher than even automated valuation model estimates. 

But is the single-family housing market overpriced? 

That’s the claim by MoneyLion, a personal loan financial technology startup, which relied on Zillow data in March 2026 to compare the average home value to the median list price in each metro area. It’s unclear whether MoneyLion relied on appraisal district data for the comparison or used automated valuation models. 

Brownsville was No. 4 on the list with an average home value of $199,181 and a median list price of $277,005, a difference of $77,824 or 39%. McAllen was No. 8 on the list, with an average home value of $194,151 and a median list price of $260,000, a 33% difference of $65,849. 

Does that theory hold up when specific homes are considered in each market? 

Here’s some data from recent listings and automated valuation model estimates in McAllen. 

For example, there’s a three-bedroom, two-bath single-family home on a slab foundation for sale near 4 Mile Line and North Ware Road in McAllen listed for $242,900. It spans 1,485 square feet on a 7,479-square-foot lot with a one-car garage and a pool built in 1980. It does not sit in a flood zone that requires insurance. 

The Hidalgo County Appraisal District, which estimates property values for taxing purposes, values the McAllen home at $215,000. Black Knight, a nationwide housing market data broker, estimates that the same home is worth $225,000. Its automated valuation model has a confidence score of 87%. CoreLogic, a company similar to Black Knight, estimated the home’s value at $216,000 with 90% confidence. 

In reality, an interested buyer would seek an independent appraisal on the property and not rely on such estimates. But on a macro level, even with the highest-valued automatic appraisal, the McAllen home is listed $17,900 higher than its worth. 

If a buyer were leveraging a conventional mortgage or even a Federal Housing Administration-backed mortgage, and the home value came back in line with those estimates, the buyer would have to pay the difference, and the mortgage would not cover the proposed sale price. This means the buyer would likely negotiate the sale price down to a level closer to the appraised value — if the seller is willing to accept such a deal. 

By comparison, in 2016, the same home was appraised by Hidalgo County at $132,895. That means the home’s county-appraised value has increased by 95% over the past decade. 

Previous home sale prices were not available; Texas law restricts public entities from disclosing such information, but licensed real estate agents do have access to the Multiple Listing Service and can run a comparable market analysis for the neighborhood for similar home sales within the past 12 months. 

Inside a subdivision near Dove Avenue and North Bentsen Road, there’s a similar property with three bedrooms, two baths, and a two-car garage. It spans 1,332 square feet on a 7,039 square foot lot and was built in 2010. The sale price for that home is $245,000, while the Hidalgo County appraisal district estimates its value at $200,000, Black Knight at $224,000, and CoreLogic at $222,000. 

A potential buyer relying on a home mortgage to purchase the property would need to cover the $23,000 difference or convince the seller to reduce the sale price by at least that amount. 

That same home was county-appraised at $120,624 in 2016 and, a decade later, at $197,354, an increase of 63%. 

Some McAllen homes were listed for sale in line with automated appraisal models, such as a three-bedroom, two-bath home spanning 1,453 square feet on a 7,362-square-foot lot with a two-car garage, built in 1996. That home near 23rd Street and Trenton Avenue was listed for $230,000. 

Black Knight estimated it’s worth $229,000, CoreLogic estimated $231,000, and the Hidalgo County appraisal district came in at $178,903 in 2026 — an increase of 54% over the past decade. 

As for Brownsville, there’s a similar trend, according to recent real estate listings and automated valuation model estimates. 

There’s a single-family home in a subdivision just east of Sunrise Mall near the intersection of Morrison Road and Paredes Line Road. The three-bedroom two-bath home with a two-car garage spans 1,254 square feet on a 5,445-square-foot lot built in 1995. 

The asking price for that home is $225,000. Black Knight estimated, with 83% confidence, that it’s worth $229,000, and CoreLogic estimated it’s worth $217,000. 

Cameron County Appraisal District records estimate the home is worth $212,464, an increase of 143% over the past decade. 

That means a homebuyer relying on a mortgage would either have to negotiate the price down or pay the $8,000 difference because lenders review appraisals when considering underwriting a loan. 

There’s a single-family home near the Brownsville Convention Center, just north of Ruben Torres Boulevard and Paredes Line Road, with a recent $15,000 price cut now listed for $245,000. 

It’s a three-bedroom, two-bath home with a two-car garage spanning 1,819 square feet on a 4,792-square-foot lot, and it was built in 2008. 

Black Knight estimates the home is worth $243,000 with 90% confidence, and CoreLogic estimates it at $246,000. Before the recent price cut, a buyer relying on a mortgage would have had to cover a $17,000 shortfall. That gap has since been largely closed. 

The Cameron County Appraisal District estimated it was worth $104,589 in 2016 and $222,566 in 2026, an increase of 112%. 

In general, if MoneyLion were relying on appraisal district data rather than automated valuation model (AMV) estimates, then yes, there’s a big gap between sale prices and appraised values. 

When AVM is taken into account, there’s still a sizable gap between the estimated home values in McAllen and Brownsville, which may be difficult for a home buyer relying on a mortgage to bridge. 

But for cash buyers, who may be moving from a market where home prices are higher, such as California, there’s still more bang for the buck in Texas. It’s unclear whether Rio Grande Valley homes are overpriced relative to comparable square footage available to cash buyers.