Trump threatens 5% tariffs on Mexico over water debt, raising stakes for Valley growers

President Donald Trump is threatening to impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports if Mexico does not immediately deliver a large tranche of water owed to the United States under the 1944 treaty managed by the International Boundary and Water Commission.

Mexico is behind on its required five-year water deliveries, a shortfall federal officials and regional stakeholders have warned about for months. In recent cycles, Mexico has failed to deliver all of the water it owes the U.S., leaving South Texas irrigators with prolonged uncertainty. 

Valley agriculture leaders have repeatedly said these delays create planning and production risks, particularly during drought years.

The Valley relies almost entirely on the Rio Grande for municipal and agricultural supply. Local water managers have warned that the basin’s shrinking reserves and rising demand leave little buffer for missed treaty deliveries. Citrus, sugarcane, and row-crop producers on the U.S. side have already reported reduced irrigation availability in recent seasons.