Editor’s Note: Rio Grande Valley Business Journal reporter Kristen Mosbrucker-Garza interviewed Lloyd B. Potter, who has served as the Texas State Demographer for the past 15 years. He is also Director of the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research and a professor emeritus at the University of Texas at San Antonio. The following transcript has been edited for clarity.

Why it matters

The Rio Grande Valley’s changing demographics are a key factor for business executives weighing investment opportunities — or not.

Over decades, some economic indicators have improved, while others continue to lag.

Key takeaways

• The Valley’s college attainment rate is climbing, but many first-generation students still struggle to finish degrees.
• Education gaps continue to shape the region’s job market, limiting growth in higher-paying industries.
• SpaceX has brought highly skilled workers to Cameron County, but its broader impact on the Valley remains uncertain.
• Family ties keep many educated residents in the region — or bring them back — even when jobs exist elsewhere.

College graduates on the rise in the RGV, sometimes a tough sell

Kristen Mosbrucker-Garza | Rio Grande Valley Business Journal: How has educational attainment in the RGV changed between 2014 and 2024? The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found a steady increase in adults with bachelor’s degrees or higher.

Lloyd Potter | Texas State Demographer: Historically, in many Hispanic families, the expectation has been that as soon as children are old enough — often by age 16, sometimes earlier — they go to work and help support the household.

That has long been the norm, and I think it’s been a challenge for higher education. It’s not just about getting first-generation Hispanic students to enroll in college, but also about helping them finish.

You can often get them to enroll, but finishing a degree is difficult. A major challenge is family support: college requires money and time, and the return on that investment isn’t immediate.

Potter: There are real challenges in raising the Valley’s overall educational attainment to a level that attracts businesses offering higher-skilled, higher-paying jobs. I’m not sure what that threshold is, but we’re not there yet.

Right now, most jobs coming to the Valley are those that can be filled by lower-skilled, lower-paid workers. Some require technical training, which can lead to better-paying positions in those professions.

Still, there are real challenges in improving educational attainment. Businesses can’t open or operate effectively if the skilled workers they need simply aren’t available.

Cameron County’s new rocket scientists — and more

Mosbrucker-Garza: Cameron County now has a higher percentage of adults with bachelor’s degrees than Hidalgo County, after decades of tracking closely. Is SpaceX part of that? What about the new UTRGV medical school?

Potter: That said, there’s been both concern and hope about what’s happening with SpaceX in Brownsville. It’s bringing in domestic — and likely some international — migrants with advanced skills, like PhD scientists, physicists, and engineers. That will have an impact, though it may be concentrated around Brownsville and South Padre and not spread widely through the Valley.

Still, SpaceX is there because of geography. They need to be close to the ocean. Before they arrived, there really wasn’t much of a base of scientists and engineers in that area.

This could become a multiplier effect — attracting more high-skilled workers while encouraging local school districts, colleges, and UTRGV to train Valley residents to meet that demand.

There are also spin-off companies serving SpaceX. I expect the share of the workforce in higher-skilled, higher-paid occupations will continue to grow.

College-educated talent returning to the RGV

Mosbrucker-Garza: What about people who study in the Valley and leave — or those who earn degrees elsewhere and return home to build careers?

Potter: Another factor is that, while some people move to Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, or elsewhere after finishing their education, family plays a central role in Latino culture.

I’ve had colleagues who moved away from Texas and then came back because their families were here. I’ve also had students turn down jobs elsewhere, saying, “My mother does not want me to go. I’m going to find a job here.”

A fair number of staff I work with have done the same. Their families are here, and as long as they can make a living, being close to family is what matters most.

That ethic is probably more common in the Rio Grande Valley than across the rest of the state.