As extreme drought grips the Rio Grande Valley and with the nearest water reservoir only 15% full, it is unlikely Mexico will pay in full the water debt owed to the United States by the Oct. 24 deadline.

Mexico owes about 326 billion gallons of water to the U.S. — enough to supply roughly 3 million households for a year, or to fill nearly half a million Olympic-size swimming pools.
And the situation is catastrophic for both sides of the river.

Experts say it is impossible for Mexico to make up that difference in the next four weeks.

“They don’t have it in their system to give to us, unless there was a major (rain) event,” said Jim Darling, chairman of the Rio Grande Regional Water Planning Group, also known as Region M.

Darling said urban areas have not been hit as hard as agriculture, and most cities are not enforcing their own water use restrictions, such as watering lawns in the middle of the day.

“Most cities don’t even know the river is at historic lows,” Darling said. “And farmers have decided not to plant.”

Isaac Sulemana, chief of staff for Hidalgo County Judge Richard F. Cortez, said the county has not received an official update on the water Mexico owes.

“We do meet frequently with various ag groups,” Sulemana said. “Every one of them says barring some sort of natural phenomenon, it’s impossible for Mexico to give us what they owe us.”

Farmers brace for losses

Sulemana, also a farmer, has watched as his family’s crops dwindled from a large variety of fruits and vegetables to corn, hay, and, sometimes, a little cotton.

“We have outsourced the majority of our food production,” Sulemana said. “They are in control of the food supply, so it’s a delicate situation when it comes to a hard push for the water.”

The Texas International Produce Association, which advocates for more than 400 companies along the fruit and vegetable supply chain, raised the alarm at a recent public event in Mission.

“There is not a single banana grown commercially in the U.S. or Mexico; it’s all coming from other countries right now with tariffs, and we’re going to have to pay more, as American consumers,” TIPA CEO Dante Galeazzi said. “Water is a huge issue; we just do not have enough of it here in the Valley. For anybody that doesn’t know, we get 90 percent of our fresh water from the Rio Grande River, and we are at lowest points in the international reservoirs. Ever.”

Food supply and treaty strains

A treaty signed 81 years ago between the U.S. and Mexico outlines how water from the Colorado and Rio Grande is to be shared. The durability of that agreement is being tested now, as growers in South Texas suffer from the lack of water to irrigate crops. Many citrus orchards have disappeared, replaced by subdivisions.

Mexico is obligated to release 350,000 acre-feet annually, or a total 1.75 million acre-feet of water, to the U.S. through five-year cycles. The current cycle began Oct. 25, 2020, and as of Sept. 9, 2025, Mexico has released just under 800,000 acre-feet, according to the International Boundary and Water Commission.

The U.S. is required to deliver 1.5 million acre-feet each year to Mexico from the Colorado River, but certain releases stopped in March 2025 under the direction of the State Department. In a written statement, IBWC Public Affairs Officer Frankie Piñon said the U.S. continues to withhold that water from Mexico.

“The State Department has not provided the authorization for emergency deliveries of Colorado River water to Tijuana this year,” Piñon wrote.

Politics and Negotiations

IBWC data shows Mexico appears to make more effort to pay its water debt when Donald Trump is in office. Former President Barack Obama started the five-year cycle that ran from 2015 to 2020, Trump finished it, and Mexico fully met its obligation.

Water deliveries from Mexico to the U.S. plummeted and plateaued under President Joe Biden during the following cycle, which began in 2020. With Trump back in the Oval Office in 2025, water deliveries have created a staircase pattern on the official IBWC tracker.

A chart from the International Boundary and Water Commission shows Mexico’s water deliveries to the United States under the 1944 Water Treaty as of Sept. 13, 2025. The current five-year cycle, which began Oct. 25, 2020, ends Oct. 24, 2025.

Piñon confirmed IBWC officials have spent time in Mexico City negotiating the release of more water.

“There are some negotiations going on and I don’t want to jeopardize those negotiations, so obviously I don’t want to give details out,” Piñon said. “Negotiations between the United States and Mexico are currently ongoing and active.”

Without knowing when and how much water will arrive, Galeazzi said it’s hard for TIPA to reach its goal of creating business opportunities for its members to build warehouses and grow the food that would supply area restaurants.

“What does that future look like,” Galeazzi asked. “It’s already happening, we are down in production by 30 percent, and it’s not just here in Texas; Mexico has a lot of the same issues, something like 26 of the states in Mexico are under severe drought.”

Sulemana said among the long-term consequences of the water shortage could be a suppression of development in the area.

“Farmers can usually modify production to accommodate short droughts, but that’s not the case with municipal users,” Sulemana said. “A household will use a certain amount of water for showers and other reasons every day. Every time we convert ag property to residential, the water use level is now fixed, and it’s never going back.”

In his view, the 81-year-old treaty still works when everyone holds up their end of the bargain.

“Mexico made a decision to increase ag production a few years ago when their water was at or near capacity,” Sulemana said. “That five-year cycle is pretty forgiving, and that was a risk they took instead of making payments to us. This is entirely a man-made shortage.”

Uncertain Future

Whether Mother Nature will forgive and provide abundant rain to both sides of the Rio Grande remains to be seen.

“If you could predict the rain, you’d be a millionaire,” said Delbert Humberson, a hydrologist with IBWC. “That’s the tough thing, we’re heavily monsoon dependent, heavily storm dependent, and it’s just tough to know what’s coming our way.”