Mexico depends on Texas gas while its own reserves sit untapped

Mexico is importing most of its natural gas from Texas — even as it sits on the same resource.

The country now imports about 75% of the gas it consumes. Much of that supply comes from the Burgos Basin, a geological formation that stretches across northeastern Mexico into South Texas.

“Eighty percent of the gas we import comes from Texas, from a basin we share with the United States,” said Luz Elena González, Mexico’s secretary of energy.

Dependence deepens as demand grows

Natural gas is central to Mexico’s economy. It fuels power generation, industrial activity and manufacturing, and is considered a key transition fuel.

Mexico currently consumes about 9 billion cubic feet per day. Of that, only 2.3 billion cubic feet is produced domestically. The rest — roughly 6.8 billion — is imported.

“Today, Mexico imports 75% of the natural gas it consumes,” González said.

Demand is expected to rise. Consumption could increase by about 30% by the end of the decade, driven largely by the power sector.

The federal government plans to bring multiple combined-cycle plants online between 2026 and 2027. Those facilities rely directly on natural gas.

“We will continue to need natural gas to sustain the country’s growth,” González said.

A border energy corridor

That imported gas enters through the northern border, where infrastructure is already concentrated.

Mexico has 22 cross-border entry points. Five account for nearly 70% of total inflows. Key nodes include Camargo and Matamoros in Tamaulipas.

Those crossings are now critical to both energy supply and industrial activity.

The dynamic reflects a deeper integration between Mexico and Texas, where energy, manufacturing and logistics are increasingly linked.

An untapped resource

At the center of the issue is the Burgos Basin.

The formation holds significant natural gas reserves and mirrors the geology of major U.S. shale plays. Yet development on the Mexican side has lagged.

Mexico has an estimated 83 trillion cubic feet of conventional reserves, along with significant unconventional potential.

“If we take advantage of these resources, we could be very close to self-sufficiency,” said Víctor Rodríguez Padilla, director general of Petróleos Mexicanos.

Production currently stands at about 2.3 billion cubic feet per day. Officials say it could nearly double by the end of the current administration and potentially reach 8.6 billion cubic feet over the next decade.

Constraints and costs

Several factors are limiting that growth.

Some fields, such as Cantarell, produce gas with high nitrogen content, increasing processing costs. Development of unconventional resources also presents technical and environmental challenges.

Officials say new technologies — including water recycling and deeper drilling — can reduce environmental impact.

“Development must be carried out with responsibility, technical rigor and a commitment to communities,” Rodríguez Padilla said.

At the same time, the government is assembling a technical committee to evaluate best practices for expanding production.

Risks of reliance

Heavy dependence on imported gas leaves Mexico exposed to external risks.

Supply reliability depends on U.S. policy decisions, pricing conditions and infrastructure stability. Weather events, particularly in Texas, can disrupt flows.

“We depend on decisions that are outside our control, which creates uncertainty in supply reliability,” González said.

Balancing growth and transition

The government is also trying to balance energy security with long-term climate goals.

Renewables currently account for about 24% of Mexico’s electricity generation. That share is expected to rise to 38% by 2030.

But natural gas will remain essential in the near term, particularly as industrial demand grows.

“Energy is not just another commodity — it is strategic for national development,” González said.

A strategic turning point

The Burgos Basin now sits at the center of Mexico’s energy debate.

It represents both a vulnerability and an opportunity — a shared resource with Texas that remains underdeveloped on one side of the border.

In a region defined by deep economic integration, expanding domestic production could reshape energy security and competitiveness.

“The challenge is no longer geological — it is strategic.”