USMCA review begins Monday as U.S. weighs tighter manufacturing rules

Negotiations to review the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement begin Monday, launching a process that could reshape manufacturing rules, labor standards and supply chains across the South Texas border and North America.

The six-year review, required under the agreement itself, will examine how the treaty is functioning and whether adjustments are needed as global supply chains shift and geopolitical tensions reshape trade.

For the border economy, the stakes are high.

Trade among the U.S., Mexico and Canada now exceeds $2.5 billion per day, while more than 90% of Mexico’s exports are manufactured goods, most destined for the U.S. market.

A consultation organized by Mexico’s Ministry of Economy ahead of the review found 78.5% of participants believe the agreement has had a positive or very positive impact on Mexico, while support among productive sectors reaches 84%.

Pressure to increase regional manufacturing

One of the central issues in the review will be increasing the share of goods produced within North America.

Adrián González, president of Global Alliance Solutions, said the U.S. is pushing to strengthen regional production.

“The core objective of the review is to increase value added within the region and depend less on Asia, specifically China.”

That shift could lead to stricter rules of origin, which determine whether a product qualifies for tariff-free treatment under the agreement.

“Companies need to be aware that they may be required to add more regional value. In other words, rules of origin could become more difficult to comply with,” González said.

Full renegotiation unlikely

Despite global economic tensions, experts say the treaty itself is unlikely to be dismantled.

Dr. Wolfram Schaffler, foreign trade administrator for the City of Laredo and Foreign Trade Zone 94, said the agreement was designed to evolve.

“Legally, it is structured as a review, but it could evolve into a partial renegotiation. Not a complete renegotiation, but adjustments,” he said.

Schaffler said the deep integration of manufacturing across North America makes major disruption unlikely.

“North America’s economy is so integrated that it would be practically impossible to dismantle supply chains.”

Labor rules also under scrutiny

Business leaders say the review could also strengthen labor protections and enforcement rules introduced under the agreement.

Heberardo González, president of the Confederation of Employers of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex) in Reynosa, said the organization has been closely involved in consultations ahead of the talks.

“The key is understanding that this is a review, not a renegotiation,” he said. 

He believes part of the review will focus on Chapter 23 of the USMCA, the section that governs labor rights and union representation at factories involved in cross-border trade.

“We must strengthen freedom of association, freedom of expression, and guarantee union freedom within the framework of the agreement,” González said.

Since the treaty took effect, more than 40 complaints have been filed under the Rapid Response Labor Mechanism, which allows the U.S. and Canada to investigate labor rights violations at specific factories in Mexico. The cases have forced companies and unions to adjust to stricter labor enforcement under the agreement.

González said Mexico’s labor framework continues to evolve, creating new responsibilities for companies operating in export manufacturing.

Among the proposals being discussed are a shorter workweek, the right to digital disconnection, and expanded protections against workplace violence and harassment.

“Companies must develop internal policies, codes of ethics, and prevention strategies that guarantee human rights within the workplace,” he said.

Border trade expected to remain central

Despite potential adjustments, experts say geography will continue to shape North American trade.

Manufacturing supply chains linking Texas and northern Mexico remain among the most dynamic in the hemisphere, moving parts and finished goods across the border every day.

“Geography is destiny. The largest market in the world is here, and that will continue to drive economic activity in the region,” Schaffler said.

For companies operating along the U.S.–Mexico border, the review will help determine how North American supply chains evolve — and how the region competes with Asia in the years ahead.