Industrial outlook: Reynosa and Matamoros close the year on different footing as 2026 takes shape

As 2025 enters its final weeks, industrial markets in northern Tamaulipas, Mexico, are closing the year from different positions, with Reynosa coming off a busy third quarter marked by strong demand for factory and warehouse space, while Matamoros moves more cautiously as companies time their next investment decisions.

Industry brokers measure that demand through a metric known as industrial absorption — essentially, how much factory and warehouse space is filled during a given period.

Developers, manufacturers, and investors use those figures to measure the industry’s strength as it heads into 2026.

Third-quarter indicators

Third-quarter figures show Reynosa led the region in newly occupied factory and warehouse space.

Meanwhile, Matamoros showed a slower pace that reflects delayed decision-making rather than lost investment, brokers and regional industry leaders told the Rio Grande Valley Business Journal.

“There is strong interest in the Valley,” said Luis Humberto Cantú Ochoa, a partner at LPS International, a cross-border trade and logistics advisory firm.

Cantú also serves as secretary of Border Trade Alliance México, a binational trade advocacy organization representing companies involved in commerce between Mexico and the United States.

“We are seeing land purchases, industrial projects, and Mexican companies establishing operations in the United States,” he said. “They are not waiting — they are moving forward.”

Despite tariff uncertainty and potential changes to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, Cantú said cross-border trade and investment between Mexico and the United States remain active, with companies adjusting strategies rather than exiting the region.

“Some companies decided the new rules no longer benefit them and left,” he said. “But many others understand that trade won’t stop. They are adjusting to what comes next.”

Reynosa posts strong leasing activity

The latest industrial data shows that companies in Reynosa are filling existing buildings faster than new space is coming online, keeping rents stable and limiting options for manufacturers looking to expand.

Reynosa led the region in manufacturing activity during the third quarter, adding about 600,000 square feet of occupied industrial space, largely through expansions by companies already operating in the city, according to NAI México, a commercial real estate brokerage and advisory firm that tracks industrial market activity across Mexico.

As more space was filled, vacancy fell from 8.4% to 7.52%, meaning fewer empty buildings were available for lease. By the end of the quarter, about 3.1 million square feet of industrial space remained on the market.

Newmark, a global commercial real estate advisory and brokerage firm, reported similar figures. The firm estimated that about 623,000 square feet of space was newly filled, leaving just 6.8% of industrial buildings available, which means companies are competing for a shrinking supply of higher-quality, Class A facilities.

Meanwhile, rental rates held steady, averaging $6.54 per square meter per month, or about 61 cents per square foot.

Industry leaders say one factor helping sustain that activity is energy availability, which continues to differentiate Reynosa and Matamoros from other Mexican industrial regions.

“In this region, we don’t have an energy crisis like other states in the Bajío,” said Rodolfo Saucedo, a partner at Proximity Consulting. “Reynosa and Matamoros have enough capacity to meet average annual industrial demand. That is a real competitive advantage.”

Matamoros projects on hold due to trade uncertainty

While Reynosa recorded strong leasing activity during the third quarter, Matamoros entered the second half of the year in a holding pattern, with companies delaying final investment decisions amid continued uncertainty around tariffs and the Mexico–U.S. trade relationship.

“Matamoros is not losing investment; decisions are on hold due to temporary tariffs,” said Saucedo.

Saucedo said Matamoros has an active pipeline of planned industrial projects and expansions, but many of those developments are paused pending greater clarity in trade policy.

“The active pipeline is between 300,000 and 400,000 square feet, which will move forward once trade clarity is restored between Mexico and the United States,” he said.

Even with some decisions delayed, activity has not stopped entirely.

A Matamoros automotive supplier recently announced a $2.7 million expansion expected to add about 800 jobs, underscoring that some companies are proceeding with projects already in motion.

Maricarmen Cadena, director of CRE International Solutions, a commercial real estate advisory firm, said Matamoros continues to advance steadily due to its geographic and operational strengths.

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She pointed to the city’s proximity to international bridges with direct access to Brownsville, railroad connectivity, proximity to Gulf of Mexico ports, reliable power and natural gas supply, expandable industrial parks, and operating costs that remain lower than those in other Mexican markets, such as Monterrey, Saltillo, or the Bajío region.

Cadena and other trade experts emphasized that Matamoros’ slower pace should not be interpreted as a retreat, but rather as a timing issue affecting when projects advance from planning to construction.

Reynosa–McAllen corridor remains a binational hub

The longer-term outlook is reinforced by continued infrastructure investment along the border, including modern customs and logistics facilities, the ongoing expansion of the Pharr International Bridge — expected to be completed in early 2026 — and upcoming freight operations at the Anzaldúas International Bridge.

As fourth-quarter figures near completion, regional leaders say those investments continue to strengthen the Reynosa–McAllen corridor’s role as a binational industrial and logistics hub.

“The Reynosa–McAllen region has consolidated itself as one of the most competitive and dynamic industrial corridors on the northern border, supported by manufacturing capabilities, logistics infrastructure and binational collaboration on both sides of the Rio Grande Valley,” said Rafael Ángel Ortiz, the Mexico representative of the McAllen Economic Development Corporation.

Ortiz confirmed that investment activity has continued despite tariff uncertainty and global political shifts.

“We are working on expansions and new developments,” he said. “Companies like Nidec Power Solutions decided to invest  $3 million in Reynosa; construction is already 80% complete.”

Ortiz also announced a new electronics manufacturing project planned for Reynosa that includes a 175,000-square-foot industrial facility and 1,500 direct jobs, with construction expected to begin in the coming months.

“Our mission is to ensure these investments stay in Reynosa because they benefit both the city and the Texas border region,” Ortiz said. “Reynosa–McAllen remains the most strategic location for national and foreign companies.”