The Rio Grande Valley’s economy — built on cross-border trade, manufacturing, and a steady flow of immigrant labor — could be among the first to feel the effects of a changing U.S. job market.

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows the number of immigrants entering or remaining in the U.S. workforce has fallen sharply, reducing the need for massive monthly job gains to keep unemployment steady. 

The study finds that the U.S. economy now needs to add only about 30,000 jobs a month to prevent unemployment from rising, down from roughly 250,000 in 2023.

“The most significant driver of recent volatility in the labor force has been immigration,” Anton Cheremukhin, a principal economist at the Dallas Fed and author of the report, said.